Where do you go to buy music?
If you're under, I don't know, 35, your first instinct is probably to iTunes or Amazon. On the off occasion that you want an actual CD, you might still buy it off Amazon, or you might check Target or Wal-Mart. If it's a little more obscure and you're feeling hip, you might go to Grimey's, or your local equivalent of the indie hole-in-the-wall.
Know where you don't go? Tower Records. Or Virgin Records. Know why? They don't exist. Not anymore. Not in this country, anyway. The last Tower Records store closed in 2006, including the infamous one in West Hollywood. Virgin Records shut down their last remaining stores - including the huge flagship location in Times Square - in 2009. (Both chains still operate international franchises and as online retailers.)
Now, on to my next question.
Where do you go to buy books?
The answer to this question five years from now might be eerily similar to what you'd say about buying music today. I currently work in a chain book store, and everywhere I look, I see the sad parallels to what happened to music retail.
Here's why I think book stores are headed down that same road. I broke down my thoughts by equating the major players in music retail with their counterparts in book retail.
Kindle (and all its competitors, including the iPad) = iPod (and all its competitors)The book industry pretended for too long, as did the record industry before it, that the digital revolution would never be enough to affect physical product sales. The record industry was wrong. So was the publishing industry. Amazon now sells more ebooks for its Kindle than it does paperbacks. "I still prefer holding a real book; I could never read off of a computer screen all day." Tell that to your CD collection, wherever it sits collecting dust. I can remember saying essentially the same thing when iPods were first introduced, scoffing at the idea that someone would want to buy something without having a physical item to show for it.
Amazon = iTunes
Low prices and no real competition worked for iTunes with mp3s, and it works for Amazon with eBooks. Funnily enough, now it is Apple who wants a share of what Amazon has cooking, hoping the iPad and iBooks can take a bite out of Amazon's monster ebook market share.
Amazon, Wal-Mart, Target, Sams = Amazon, Wal-Mart, Target, Sams
Amazon has the additional advantage of also selling physical product, for cheaper than you can find it in a store. If you do want it from a store, you're going to go to a big box retailer. You can pick your favorite, but from the perspective of the dying bookstore, they're all villains. Did you know big box retailers sell music and books for a loss? 50% off that just-released best-seller is merely a way to get you in the door. They'll gladly take the hit there, while you fill your cart with other stuff. $14 instead of $19, plus you can pick up toothpaste and new shoes? Who wouldn't take that deal?
Indie Bookstores = Indie Record Stores
Maybe you're a buy-local advocate. Maybe the thought of shopping at the Evil Empire turns your socially-conscious stomach. That's okay. There will still be indie bookstores. There just won't be as many of them. And they will struggle to stay in business. And they'll most-likely cater to a particular niche of reader. And they won't always have what you're looking for. But the ones that breed loyalty and maintain a cult-following will still be around, as a haven for old souls. Which leads me to...
Real Books = Vinyl (and, for now, still CDs)
Music freaks still love their vinyl. They like the way it sounds. They like the way it feels. They like that it is cool to have a record player. And real books? They'll become the LPs of book lovers. Or, for now, at least the CDs of book lovers and people who roll old-school. Plenty of people with iPods still buy the occasional CD, and plenty of vinyl-enthusiasts also have iPods. There's room for overlap. Books aren't going to disappear or stop being printed. But the ebook revolution has officially arrived. And it's not going to disappear, either.
Borders, Barnes & Noble, Books-a-Million = Virgin Records, Tower Records
So we come to this. Will bookstores, like the one you might go to if you needed a book today, go the way of the record store? Every argument to the contrary is an echo of the now-defunct reasons people gave 10 years ago for why record store chains wouldn't go under. It's starting already. Both Borders and Barnes & Noble closed stores in the past year, no doubt with more to come, and rumors of bankruptcy swirl around one or the other ever week.
Bigger and brighter and more economic and industry-savvy minds than mind have been looking at this issue for a while. What do you think? Where do you buy your books and your music? Have you joined the ebook revolution?